Much of the angst heading into Nov. 3 is thanks to a few hard-to-hold states with a well-earned reputation for being wishy-washy where presidential elections are concerned.

UC Riverside political science professors were polled on their predictions for eight battleground states, and the results carry some optimism for the Joe Biden camp, while also suggesting they should forget about Georgia.

The political scientists unanimously predicted Biden will win Michigan, with six of 11 who voted in the poll saying the former vice president will win by more than 4 percentage points. All 11 were also unanimous in saying that Donald Trump will win Georgia.

Ten of 11 said Biden will win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That’s significant in that most political prognosticators say it will be difficult for either candidate to win if he loses Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes.

UCR political scientist Francisco Pedraza pointed to the apparent success of Democrats in registering new voters in those battleground states.

“My view on Michigan and Pennsylvania is driven by the early voter turnout figures and on-the-ground mobilization campaigns in each state,” said Pedraza, who predicted Biden wins.

Political scientist Karthick Ramakrishnan said Black voter turnout will be key to winning in those states.

“We are accustomed to thinking of white working-class voters as critical to winning these so-called ‘Rust Belt’ states, but we should remember that President Obama’s victories in the Midwest and mid-Atlantic depended on high Black turnout,” he said, adding Obama was also the benefactor of support from Asian American and Latino voters.

“If Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, it would signal a very strong return of the ‘Obama coalition,’ with communities of color playing a central role in those states,” Ramakrishnan added.

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